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Calculation report · proof of concept · SKD-POC-05
2021 Aman-season drought, Barind Tract / Rajshahi (design case)
No living mark for this run: the index pays below its trigger, and the mark is drawn for indices where higher means worse.
- Peril
- Agricultural drought · rainfed rice
- Source
- CHIRPS rainfall and MODIS NDVI, blended 50 / 50
- Period
- 2019 to 2021, ten-day steps
- Backtest
- Not scored against losses
- Rainfall data
- CHIRPS v2 production ends after December 2026; new work uses CHIRPS v3, with a re-backtest.
Districts61admin level 2, nationwide
Trigger events8district seasons below the trigger
Expected payout12.3%of limit, per triggered event
Trigger−1.0 zblended index, Aug to Oct
Netrakona peak -2.10 z
trigger · -1.00 2021 · T1
Context
Northwest Bangladesh's Barind Tract had its peak extreme-drought year in 2021, with monsoon rainfall about 18% below normal in Rajshahi, stressing rainfed Aman rice at its reproductive stage. This proof of concept was designed around that event, but the published run does not trigger on it: Rajshahi scores +0.18 z in 2021, above the -1.0 trigger. The triggers of the 2019-2021 run are in the northeast in 2021 and in the southwest in 2020. Known limits: 0.25 degree grid, no cropland mask, no yield series.